Minister of Science and Chief Protector of the Faith

Sunday, June 01, 2008

More Rocket Powered Goal Posts


Wolf, meeting with a Lamb astray from the fold, resolved not to lay violent hands on him, but to find some plea to justify to the Lamb the Wolf's right to eat him. He thus addressed him: "Sirrah, last year you grossly insulted me."

"Indeed," bleated the Lamb in a mournful tone of voice, "I was not then born."

Then said the Wolf, "You feed in my pasture."

"No, good sir," replied the Lamb, "I have not yet tasted grass."

Again said the Wolf, "You drink of my well."

"No," exclaimed the Lamb, "I never yet drank water, for as yet my mother's milk is both food and drink to me."

Upon which the Wolf seized him and ate him up, saying, "Well! I won't remain supperless, even though you refute every one of my imputations."

The tyrant will always find a pretext for his tyranny.

Remaining Primaries
Puerto Rico: 63 delegates
Montana: 24 delegates
South Dakota: 23 delegates
Total Pledge Delegates left: 110
Total Super Delegates left: 195-207
Total Delegates left: 305-317

Total Delegates (Including FL & MI) [ ± ]
Hillary CLinton: 1872-1877
Barack Obama: 2048-2052
(Nobody agrees on the exact number.)
Source: [ 1, 2, 3 ]

Needed to win: 2118

Delegates Needed: [ ± ]
Hillary CLinton: 241-246
Barack Obama: 66-70
Total Delegates left: 305-317
Source: [ 1, 2 ]

If Clinton were awarded all of the delegates (instead of half of the delegates) based on the results of the primaries in Florida and Michigan, she would get 94.5 more delegates, putting her still short 146.5-151.5.

Obama would then pick up 68 delegates. That would put Obama at 2116-2120 delegates, just enough to secure the nomination. If she got all of the votes in Florida and Michigan, then Obama would win - If you include the uncommitted Michigan delegates, as the Democratic rules committee decided to do.

The only way for that scenario to have worked in Hillary Clinton's favor would have been if the uncommitted delegates were not given to Obama. (Because his name was not on the ballot.) Why has no one brought this up? That is why they pushed so hard for that scenario - 'Seat all of the delegates despite the rules, and no Michigan votes for Obama.' [ 1 ]

Even if Hillary Clinton got what she wanted, that would put her at ±150 short of the nomination, and Obama at 1877-32(MI)+36(FL)=1881, or 66 short of the nomination. The math is impossible for the Clinton campaign no matter how you slice it.

Harold Ickes, a spokesperson for the Clinton campaign, said their campaign will continue to push for full seatings of the MI and FL delegations, including the uncommitted votes in MI. "Mrs. Clinton has instructed me to reserve her rights to take this to the credentials committee," Ickes said. [ 1 ] He is talking about taking this matter to the convention. He just said it again on Meet the Press.

Two things you should know about Ickes:

1. He was instrumental in the creation of the proportional allocation system the Democratic primary is waged under; and

2. As a voting member of the DNC, he voted last fall to strip the MI and FL primaries of pledged delegate due to their violation of the calendar rules. [ 1 ]

The San Francisco Chronicle: The delegate race Clinton supporters furious over delegate ruling Seat all delegates, Clinton campaign demands What's next for Clinton camp after delegates decision? Harold Ickes is SNL's Nathan Thurm w/video
CNN: Democratic Delegate Calculator

(*I think the math is right. I did it very quickly and I was tired.)

Hillary Clinton's ever-changing election goal posts are rocket powered!

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At Sun Jun 01, 03:21:00 PM, Blogger kreplech said...

math, fact, and logic be damned...

the "mine, mine, mine!" strategy having seemingly failed, the "it's just not fair" approach is now in full swing - to be followed by "holding their breaths until they turn blue" and eventually "sobbing themselves to sleep"...

At Sun Jun 01, 05:12:00 PM, Blogger Jess Wundrun said...

Is there a super secret reason the Clinton's so desperately want to get back into the White House? Perhaps they left a treasure map in the attic. Or maybe they're curious about how the Bushes and their vile little pooping dogs have trashed the place?

Maybe they need two ex-presidents' speaking fees to live on. One just won't do. Maybe there's a Bilderberg conspiracy at work?

At Sun Jun 01, 07:30:00 PM, Blogger BAC said...

Mark your calendars -- all of Florida and Michigan's delegates will be seated at the convention. CW says so.


At Mon Jun 02, 12:13:00 AM, Blogger Dr. Monkey Von Monkerstein said...

The Clintonista's never let facts get in their way. They maintain that all the people who voted for Obama actually meant to vote for Hillary.

At Mon Jun 02, 06:58:00 AM, Blogger Dean Wormer said...

If this goes to the convention it will be President McCain.

Nothing is worth four more years of Bush policies.


At Mon Jun 02, 10:29:00 AM, Blogger Übermilf said...

But she just took Puerto Rico!

At Mon Jun 02, 01:42:00 PM, Blogger Unconventional Conventionist said...

I think your math is pretty good Dr. Z. I have been counting on the people running and I think your numbers jive with theirs.

At Mon Jun 02, 03:13:00 PM, Blogger Dr. Zaius said...

kreplech: Ha! "mine, mine, mine!" to "it's just not fair" to "holding their breaths until they turn blue" to "sobbing themselves to sleep" - ! That's a hilarious analogy!

Jess Wundrun: A treasure map in the attic? Cool! I thought that all of the holes in the ground were for burying former staff members!

BAC: Wow! Then Hillary Clinton will only lose by ±150 delegates. If doesn't change the outcome, it hardly seems relevent. I don't even know who (or care) CW is.

Dr. Monkerstein: If Hillary could have it her way, she would have kept Obama's name off of all of the ballots. (Except the caucus states, because of course they don't count.)

Dean Wormer: To the Clinton's, nothing is worse than Hillary not winning. Nothing. If things go south, we know who to blame.

Übermilf: Indeed! And don't forget Poland!

Unconventional Conventionist: Hey! What a great link! Very cool! And thanks for checking my math.

At Wed Jun 04, 01:41:00 AM, Blogger Swinebread said...

he is nuts. They don't give a crap about the party at all.

I want Donna Brazile as the VP


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